Josh Donaldson for Kendall Graveman, Sean Nolin, Brett Lawrie and Franklin Barreto…
If you’re looking at this deal in and of itself—4 relatively unproven quantities for one proven one—the Jays got better and didn’t lose anything measurable with the subtraction of prospects and incumbent third basemen, Brett Lawrie. Nolin and Graveman would have most likely been felt from the Jays pen to start the year, if not placed in Triple A on a set pitching rotation, ready to be called in for a spot start. Barreto isn’t even on the radar for Big League impact yet, and wouldn’t be a factor for the Jays until at least 2017, and even then, most likely not at shortstop.
But the big lose for my Jays fans is Lawrie. He is, however, the easiest player here for me to say so long to, mostly because he’s being immediately, replaced and improved upon with the addition of Donaldson.
Also, Brett is injury prone. Now, I know saying something like that is kind of like saying roulette wheels are prone to landing on red. The health of all players is a gamble and unpredictable. Even Billy Beane believes that Lawrie’s injuries are freak accidents aside from the oblique, but I don’t think that’s entirely true.
Lawrie’s play style is prone to freak accidents. In fact, if you were going to write up an insurance policy for play style, his ultra intensity would make his premiums more expensive than the average Big Leaguer, and that’s saying nothing of his oblique. I don’t fault a player for pushing as hard as Lawrie does. Most folks would honor the desire that Lawrie has, and I do. But the body can only take so much berserk. Quick twitch athletes tend to get hurt more often as a byproduct of their explosive athleticism. His body needs a driver that can tell it when to hit the gas and when to lay off, not push the peddle through the floor all the time. Maturity and experience will teach him that, but the question will always be, at what cost to his present level of production?
Do I think Lawrie will be a great player when he’s healthy? Yes, I do, but I also feel you’ll see him on the DL more in the coming years, than see a reduction in production. Granted, you could see any player on the DL in the coming year, but, in my experience around baseball players, his build, his play style, his all out, all the time nature, I don’t think freak accidents are all that freakish with Lawrie.
However, whatever future upside you may have seen lost in Brett’s departure, you are capturing right now with the pick up of Donaldson. If you’re looking at WAR related values, the Jays gained nearly 3 or more wins. Donaldson is arguably the best third basemen in baseball, a power supply, and a controllable asset for the future. He gives the Jays one hell of a lineup, even if it is a little right-handed heavy.
But while this pickup makes the Jays better, it doesn’t address some needs. Donaldson makes the team better, but he doesn’t address any of the team’s true needs—relief pitching, the Melky Factor, a lefty bat, and a potential Ace.
So why did it happen?
To this end, let me say that the lack of an Ace doesn’t bother me as much as the other needs do. I think the Jays may have an Ace in house already, he just hasn’t gotten the chance to fill out the shoes—but he will be put in those shoes none the less.
Sanchez is very impressive, and Stroman is solid. If Hutch, Stro, and Sanchez pitch like number 2’s and Buhrle and Dickey do their jobs like they have been, I don’t worry so much about the Ace. Having an Ace is often just a matter of narrative, and that narrative will find someone because it’s largely based on comparison. Who is the ace of the team? Who is the Ace in this league? Who is the Ace right now?
I’d rather have 3 solid pitchers, properly valued, with middle to top of the order potential. If the Jays want to go get a MLB wide Ace in the middle of the season—or this off season now that they’ve bolstered their lineup and backstop—they certainly can, but if the Jays don’t get some help for the pen, whatever ever the Ace and the Line up do, it may not be enough to hold it all together.
That’s why Donaldson is not without a head scratch. He was not a Jays’ need, but he’s certainly not unwelcome. In fact, as good as he is, he still may only be the Jays 3rd best hitter, which is down right flabbergasting since, Donaldson was hitting the snot out of the ball with lesser protection in Oakland. The Dome, and the line up should help contribute to his swat potential, doubly so if they get a lefty in the lineup to confound matchups with the righties. But who is protecting those results into the latter innings? That’s the next need the Jays must address now to solidify this off season’s improvements.
You might argue that the Jays weakened themselves—at least in relation to the needs I stated—by moving potential pen arms in Nolin, Graveman. I touched on it early above, but it’s important to understand that prospects are currency. They are ranked and scouted and appraised by certain companies and team officials and “experts”, then assigned value—a value that is always unproven until they get to the big leagues and produce.
So, prospects can be all kinds of amazing, but their real value is at the top, and only at the top, unless you have someone else out there who agrees with the industry ascribed potential and is willing to create a market for you.
While Nolin and Graveman could have been factors in the pen, or rotation, the Jays have to get them into that pen and rotation. The normal course of the season typically dictates some attrition, which results in young players getting their chances, but, in the case of Nolin and Graveman, that’s still what it would have been—chances.
This is funny because it’s always difficult to know when and how to work a player into the majors. It’s as much need and opportunity as it is deserved reaction to stellar production. Getting a top talent to the top at the right time is almost as sketchy as evaluating their prospect worth because the worth of a prospect starts getting reevaluated as soon as that prospect starts the big league clock so you don’t want the opportunity to devalue the intrinsic prospect currency. Does that make sense.
Sometimes the unknown about a player is more valuable than the known, and that unknown should be capitalized on.
For the Jays, going into this season, Nolin and Graveman represented depth, and depth represents stability unless there is immediate need for it to be more. Because of the current strength of the Jays rotation, Nolin and Graveman represented depth and possible future upside. So, a simple equation to consider is, if a prospect presents a higher value to the organization as an unknown, keep him as a prospect and trade him for a known value. If a prospect represents more to the organization as a future known/depended on Big League player, keep him. Or, if prospect potential > immediate impact, trade for immediate impact. If prospect potential < immediate impact, find a place for them in your roster and make it work, now.
What muddies this is, there is almost always a need for pitching. Yet, again, it comes down to the time value of production for a team. There comes a point where you must have immediate impact because while you’re waiting for young kids to become studs, your results are getting recorded, and those results are impacting your future ability to spend, shop, up payroll and get more prospects.
In the future, the chances of the Jays landing a stud like Donaldson at third base for the type of money and controllability they did is less likely then landing a couple pitching prospects that could make similar impact.
The Jays did good here, lost little, but still have some big questions.
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