Brett Cecil or Jeremy Jeffress?
You can only pick one, so who’s it gonna be?
Last year Cecil’s velo was down and a big deal was made of it since, in most folks minds, the drop in velocity was an easy and direct bridge to his decreased effectiveness.
Forget the fact that there are lefties all over the majors that throw slower than he did last season and still make good livings. Forget the fact that Cecil threw, on average, slower in 2011 (both minimum and maximum velocity) than he did in 2012, despite pitching to a lower ERA and BB/9 total. Forget the fact that Cecil throws harder than Darren Oliver. Popular opinion will always equate velocity to outs. Cecil’s velo was down, therefore he wasn’t getting outs.
Funny, in all my years of playing, I don’t remember a radar gun getting anyone out.
Velocity is just one of a pitchers tools, but it’s nothing without the most valuable tool: command. After all, If you can’t throw strikes, it doesn’t matter how hard you throw. A ball at 100mph is still a ball.
Need proof? Then stare with me into the paradox of Jeremy Jeffress, Brett Cecil’s most immediate competition for the last spot in the bullpen. Jeffress has velo. Oodles of it. But the times he has harnessed that velo inside the zone are rare this spring—not to mention throughout his entire career. And, when he does dial back his fastball to get more of his pitches in the zone, he gets waffled.
Velocity that can’t find the strike zone is just something to look at and say, “my god, imagine how good this guy could be if he could just figure it out.”
Indeed, that’s exactly what people have a been saying about Jeremy Jeffress for some time now: He could be amazing… if.
And He really, genuinely could be amazing. When I saw him punch out a pack of Braves hitters earlier this spring with 98mph heat on the black, I was ready for the Jays sign him to a long term deal right then and there.
Unfortunately he’s normalized since then, back to the guy you pray will figure it all out while wearing your team’s uniform.
Velocity allows you to make more mistakes. It also gets you more chances to make them. If you throw 95pmh, you can miss in the middle of zone and get away with it more often than a guy throwing 85. Plus, there will always be a general manager some where who’s willing to give you a look in hopes that you put it all together under their colors.
However, even if you throw 100mph, if you consistently run pitch counts up and grant major league hitters extra looks at your stuff, you’ll nullify your high octane arm. Then, once the league figures out that most of what makes you look so good is their impatience at the plate, your chances to pitch will dry up.
I grant you, lower velocity isn”t very sexy, but outs sure are. Throw down and away at 88mp and back it up with a high and tight fastball anytime you want and you can pitch forever.
Brett Cecil, despite having an arm that fires smaller caliber ordinance than Jeffress, is having a the sexier spring training. He’s no left handed sniper, and there is still room for improvement, but he’s in the zone more now than I’ve seen him in the past. And while his velocity has surely helped him get away with a few mistakes, his command of the zone has helped him the most.
The Delabar arm program made have squelched a lot of concerns about his velo never coming back, but I see a young man that’s learning how to pitch.
Jeremy Jeffress may keep the brass drooling with is potential upside, but if you can only have one player, I’m inclined to go with the guy that can put the ball over the plate with some constancy. Even if Cecil gets hit, at least there are 8 guys behind him to help sort it out. There is no defense for walks.
