I’m bullish on the prospect of the Red Sox signing Justin Masterson, and I think Justin Masterson should dig it as well. He’s going to get a lot of run support, the upgrades to infielding make Boston a nice match for a sinker-baller, and he’ll be reunited with John Farrell. For the right dollar amount, that’s not too shabby when you consider he won’t be expected to play staff ace but a middle of the rotation arm with a chance of being more. If the Sox get Lester to come back, too… mmm… could be juicy all the way around.
Masterson is also entering a rebound year. If the deal is short and incentivized, look for a strong bounce back, or (#becausebaseball) you can at least trust he’ll give every effort to bounce back so he can get the big payday he just missed out on two years from now.
Believe it or not, I actually like the Masterson deal for the Blue Jays, and for similar reasons—Upgraded infield, run support, cheaper, rebound year opportunity in which he could rebuild value… There is no Farrell in that mix, but I’m sure the Jays have a box of Farrell’s old managing goodies they could stick in Masterson’s locker. At least it would smell like Farrell.
Masterson is coming off a rough year and that should raise some eyebrows, but he was pretty banged up in 2014, with shoulder, knee, and oblique issues. A healthy Masterson could be a steal—for anyone— and the Jays are always looking out for payroll flexibility. Masterson could recover well as a middle rotation arm while Sanchez finds his starter footing—a hedge against young unproven arms taking to long to become proven.
Furthemore, if Masterson did recover, you could argue a case to move Buehrle and his back-loaded contract later into the season. Or, simply flip your renovated Masterson property to a team in need near the trade deadline.
All that said, I actually like the idea of Masterson coming out of the Pen for the Jays better. Specifically as the closer (wwwwaaaaaht?!).
Yes, yes, I know there are sooo many FA arms out there available that the Jays aren’t even stressing about getting one, even though they really need bullpen help. But…
Masterson’s control is his biggest issue, and I realize that. Yet, as a reliever, his command was much less of a factor. 92 innings pitched is not the biggest sample size to go off of, so give me a little grace here as I speak from my gut and experience. I’ve seen a lot of pitchers who struggle with their command go to the pen and become excellent relievers. A lot. Including Masterson! It’s something about the smaller work load, smaller psychological load, and smaller chance to prove yourself that really lets/pushes some pitchers to dial in. Besides, a good inning is much easier to accomplish and build off of than a good start, where one bad inning can destroy everything you’ve worked for.
Masterson’s turbo sinker would be fantastic to deploy later on in a game when you can put in your defensive subs and let him induce rollovers to his heart;s content. Plus, he gets healthy amount of K’s himself (more on that later). It may not be a value conscious deal, but buying a bullpen at hight prices just because they are a good bullpen arm is almost never a value conscious deal since the relief market’s results are so volatile. Good this year, bad the next year… and so on…
But concerning the long term investment, I like Masterson for any team because I feel sinker-ball pitchers actually get better with age. As the velocity decreases, the ball runs more. Just aim for the bottom of the zone and let it eat. Tough to trust that as a pitcher, but it does work.
BABIP will go up, but other positive metrics that result from decreased walks should go down. Think Mark Buehrle here: he doesn’t K a lot of people, and his contract rates are high, but batters miss-hit a lot of his stuff. I think Masterson could age into a similar scenario as his velocity drops and batters find more reason to swing at the top half of he pitch in the bottom of the zone as opposed to taking nasty stuff that runs sideways out of it. Buehrle, not a sinker-baller, but works to a similar effect.
Think it over, let me know your thoughts.
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